(CNN) — Tropical Storm Bertha is slowly organizing in the northeastern Gulf, where it is expected to bring several days of heavy rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana.
Bertha may have earned a name, but it still isn’t a well-organized tropical cyclone. Most of its strongest thunderstorms remain confined to the southern half of the circulation, while dry air continues to disrupt development despite fuel from near-record warm Gulf water.
It’s the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has gotten off to a slow start compared to recent years as El Niño tightens its grip on parts of the basin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a lower-than-average number of named systems in the Atlantic this season because of it.
Storm track, intensity
Bertha will most likely track along the Gulf Coast and make landfall by late Wednesday night as a weak tropical storm near southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Bertha is expected to face increasingly hostile conditions, like storm-killing wind shear, over the next several days that should limit how much stronger it becomes.
The shear has already displaced most of Bertha’s thunderstorms to the south of its center, preventing the storm from becoming better organized.
Tropical systems interacting with dry air and land tend to weaken because they’re deprived of the warm, moist ocean conditions that fuel their thunderstorms.
These unfavorable factors could even cause the system to dissipate over Louisiana, but the latest forecast calls for it to reach the Upper Texas Coast as a tropical depression by late week.
Impacts expected on Gulf Coast starting Monday
Regardless of the system’s fate, heavy rainfall, gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the northern Gulf Coast Monday night through at least midweek.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for coastal Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. In these areas, tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Ochlockonee River west to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. In these locations, tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 to 48 hours. Additional watches could be issued farther west along the Louisiana coast and into Texas in the next day or two.
Here’s what to expect:
• Rainfall: Widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in the strongest thunderstorms, are possible from the western Florida Panhandle to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast. This could trigger flash flooding, especially in urban areas like New Orleans.
• Wind: Tropical storm conditions — sustained winds of 39+ mph — are possible in the tropical storm warning area of the Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana coasts Monday night into Tuesday. Locations in the western Florida Panhandle and coastal Louisiana in a tropical storm watch could see those conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Higher gusts in thunderstorms could cause isolated power outages.
• Storm surge: Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above normal from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border. A storm surge watch is in effect for this area, which means life-threatening inundation of ocean water is possible in the next 48 hours.
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