Hurricane hunter aircraft finds a stronger system and now issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura.
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft finds that tropical depression 13 has strengthened to Tropical Storm Laura. pic.twitter.com/TNjJETfJL3
— Vivian Gonzalez (@VivianGonzalez7) August 21, 2020
Tropical Depression 13 now upgraded to Tropical Storm Laura is approaching the Northern Leeward Islands. Plenty of heavy rain is forecast to spread from the Leeward Islands into the Virgin Islands and Puerto through the weekend. Flooding could be a concern especially in low-lying areas.
5 pm Advisory on TS Laura. 45 mph and moving over the Leeward Islands. Those tropical storm force winds fan out from the center 115 miles pic.twitter.com/f9FNPKqY47
— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) August 21, 2020
The forecast track has shifted slightly to the South and that is due to fluctuations in models with the building area of high pressure that will be steering it. It has strengthened into a tropical storm over and will move near or North of the Virgin Islands and Puerto on Saturday. In fact, gradual strengthening will take place as it impacts the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas on Sunday morning. Eventually it will reach the Florida Straits. Laura could be located anywhere between the Northwestern Bahamas, South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico on Monday as a potential hurricane.
5 pm Cone tracks the system over most of the Caribbean Islands. Most of South Florida is out of the cone of concern except for the Middle and Lower Keys. BUT, everyone could still see pockets of heavy rain and some gusty winds on & off by Monday. Check back for updates. pic.twitter.com/R44kLwKh4U
— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) August 21, 2020
Models agree on track and The National Hurricane Center forecast cone that it is headed in the direction of Florida. However, we just don’t know exactly how strong it will be.
Models agree on #TD13 track & NHC forecast cone reflects that. However, there is uncertainty on how strong it will be. Stay tuned to your #StormStation for the latest. A potential system will approach late weekend into early next week (Sun/Mon). @wsvn #flwx #trackingthetropics pic.twitter.com/K1ehttgJuf
— Vivian Gonzalez (@VivianGonzalez7) August 21, 2020
A more Southward track, means potential brush with land (Greater Antilles) and weakening the system. There is also dry air and Saharan dust to the North of the system it will have to battle.
WORKING AGAINST #TD3 – Dry air, potential brush with land & Saharan dust ahead could keep the system weak or from strengthening. @wsvn @7weather #trackingthetropics #stormstation #flwx pic.twitter.com/aCxmodx5T6
— Vivian Gonzalez (@VivianGonzalez7) August 21, 2020
A more Northward track, means plenty of warm waters ahead (80 degrees +) which is fuel for systems to grow stronger. Also, it will encounter an area of weak upper winds (a.k.a. wind shear).
WORKING FOR #TD13 – Plenty of warm waters in the Atlantic of 80 degrees or higher & low wind shear (which normally either keeps systems in check or tears them apart). @wsvn @7weather #flwx #stormstation #trackingthetropics pic.twitter.com/JtKcwPR4ZD
— Vivian Gonzalez (@VivianGonzalez7) August 21, 2020
Main Message
Plan and prepare for whatever Mother Nature decides to send our way. Tropical storm force winds and rain could arrive late Sunday/early Monday.
Stay safe and informed with your Storm Station, 7 News!
Vivian Gonzalez
Meteorologist, AMS Certified
WSVN Channel 7