Throughout most of Wednesday, we were tracking Nicole as a strengthening Tropical Storm. Then, just prior to the evening, the system intensified. The nudge (to 75 mph) was determined by a recent Recon mission. Data showed falling pressures during the flight. Category 1 Nicole, is now moving directly west from the NW Bahamas. By the way, the system has already made 2 landfalls. Just before Noon (Wednesday) the initial landfall had the center moving over Great Abaco Island with winds at 70 mph. Then, Nicole moved across Grand Bahama Island with winds at 75 mph during the late afternoon.
At this point, there’s high confidence in the future track of the hurricane. The center of Nicole will push towards Florida, specifically aiming for the Treasure Coast. It’s expected to make landfall early on Thursday (before daybreak) with strong impacts spreading over a large area. The eye of the Nicole will probably move ashore between Fort Pierce and Melbourne.
What about south Florida? We’re close enough to Nicole to get damaging winds (especially from Broward County northward) along with MORE tropical downpours. Expect times of “wind-swept rain” into Thursday as Nicole chugs along. One of the biggest concerns is with the combination of heavy rain and the King Tides. During the high tide cycles, including mid-morning (around 9 am) coastal flooding is likely. Ft. Lauderdale Beach will certainly be impacted by over-running water. Make sure to avoid water covered roadways and remember that beach hazards continue. Dangerous Rip Currents are still at a high risk, too.