The area of clouds and rain in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea appears to be getting its act together this late Saturday . NHC says that surface observations show a broad area of low pressure forming. There are poorly organized thunderstorms starting to impact Cuba, mostly to the East of the alleged center.

The low will continue moving towards the Yucatan overnight, possibly moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

This is when we expect the low to develop. NHC gives it a 80% chance that it could become a depression or a storm by then.

If it becomes a Storm it will be called, “Colin”. We had “Bonnie” last month (and again this month) and “Alex” spun up in January.

Forecast track?

If it does develop, most of the models are indicating a path North of the Tampa area.

But these are preliminary runs. Since nothing has developed yet, there is no good starting point for the computers to use.

No good starting point means no good ending point. We should keep our eyes on this over the rest of the weekend.

What should we do?
For the time being, tune in from time to time and monitor the progress of this feature. This is a good reminder we are in hurricane season and you should be prepared for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.

  • Even if this low does not develop, we can expect possible heavy rainfall by the start of next week.
  • Models are showing totals as high as 3-4 inches, with the higher totals by Collier County.  This may lead to localized street flooding, and even the potential for tornadoes.
  • A tornado worry may happen Sunday night for SW Florida and for the East Coast by Monday afternoon.  Make sure to have your notifications ON, on you favorite weather app. A weather radio is also a good idea to have.

Please be mindful all these possible impacts will depend on where exactly the system ends up.

A recon plane will go out on Sunday afternoon. Better idea by then.

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