BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — The conservative protege of a powerful former president and a leftist former guerrilla who has galvanized voters with an anti-establishment message appeared headed for what promises to be a polarizing runoff election for president in Colombia.
With almost all quick count results in from Sunday’s presidential vote, former senator Ivan Duque was leading with 39 percent of the ballots cast, short of the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a June runoff. Former rebel and ex-Bogota mayor Gustavo Petro trailed in second place with 25 percent, edging out former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo, who garnered nearly 24 percent and has not yet conceded.
Duque and Petro represent opposite ends of Colombia’s political spectrum and have presented dramatically different visions for the future of the Andean nation as it moves forward with a historic peace process with leftist rebels.
Duque is the handpicked candidate of Alvaro Uribe, the former president and chief critic of the nation’s 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. He is promising to amend important aspects of the accord like ensuring the drug trafficking is not an amnestied crime and blocking guerrillas leaders from political office.
Petro supports the accord and has galvanized youth voters angered over deeply entrenched corruption and income inequality. He is vowing to end Colombia’s dependence on oil exports and raise taxes on vast swaths of unproductive land in hopes of boosting agricultural production. Critics have warned the former guerilla and ex-Bogota mayor’s rise could push Colombia dangerously toward the left and rattle markets.
“There’s a high degree of frustration with the political establishment and corruption which is widespread,” said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue. “And I think Petro’s standing in the polls could be attributed to that.”
The election has sparked fears on both the left and right, with Duque’s critics cautioning that his presidency would be tantamount to a constitutionally barred third term for Uribe. Though hugely popular among Colombians for improving security and weakening illegal armed groups, Uribe also presided over grave human rights violations by the military.
Meanwhile, Petro and his populist platform have drawn comparisons from critics to the late Venezuelan socialist leader Hugo Chavez, who Petro once admired. He brought Chavez to Colombia in 1994 shortly after the Venezuelan paratrooper was released from jail, where he was sent for staging a military coup.
Petro describes himself as a “strong adversary” of the neighboring country’s current president, Nicolas Maduro, but his early ties to Chavez have dogged him throughout the campaign. His campaign likened the comparisons to fear-mongering tactics by a traditional political class no longer able to court votes based on their hardline stance against leftist rebels.
“This is an electoral debate between corrupt political networks and free citizens,” Petro, 58, said after casting his ballot at a school in a working class neighborhood of Bogota, where he was swarmed by supporters chanting his name and clamoring for selfies.
Johana Contreras, 29, a flight attendant, was among those casting a vote for Petro.
“For years, the only thing the right has caused us is problems,” she said. “We hope Petro can show us the way.”
More than 18.5 million voters cast ballots in the election, the highest turnout in two decades.
The results were especially harsh for former Fajardo, who fell less than 2 points behind Petro and failed to advance to the next round. During weeks of negotiations he tried unsuccessfully to form an alliance with likeminded centrist Humberto de la Calle, whose 2 percent vote haul would’ve been enough to push Fajardo past Petro.
Petro and Duque differ on almost every critical issue facing Colombia: Duque favors forcibly eradication coca crops that have skyrocketed to record levels, whereas Petro favors substitution. Historically tight relations between the U.S. and Colombia would likely remain unchanged under a Duque presidency, whereas Petro has called U.S. assistance to Colombia “help that has served for nothing.”
In regards to the peace deal, Duque has said he’ll introduce a constitutional reform mandating that drug trafficking cannot be an amnestied crime. Under the accord, guerillas involved in drug trafficking and violent during the conflict who fully confess their crimes can avoid jail time. Many Colombians consider those terms far too generous.
The FARC long funded itself by leveling a “war tax” on cocaine moving through territory it dominated, and 50 members of its leadership structure were indicted in 2006 in the U.S. on charges of running the world’s largest drug cartel.
In April, Colombian authorities arrested a former top rebel peace negotiator on a U.S. drug warrant on charges that he conspired with three others to smuggle several tons of cocaine into the U.S. with a wholesale value of $15 million.
Petro, a former militant with the M-19 guerrilla group, participated in a previous 1990 peace accord and has said he favors the recent agreement.
The weeks ahead are likely to be even more polarizing than the months of campaigning preceding the first-round vote.
De la Calle, the government’s chief negotiator with the FARC, without specifically endorsing Petro, made an impassioned plea not to backtrack on implementation of the peace accord when a future free of armed conflict is within reach.
“The war brought us together during eight years,” he said. “And now peace is dividing us.”
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