(WSVN) - Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting a somewhat below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, forecasting 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. This outlook is primarily attributed to the anticipated development of a robust El Niño, which typically suppresses hurricane activity during the season that runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The predicted storm numbers are below the long-term seasonal averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. These winds create increased vertical wind shear, which is unfavorable for hurricane formation and intensification in the Atlantic.
Current weak La Niña conditions are forecast to rapidly transition to El Niño in the coming months and while its exact intensity is uncertain, a moderate to strong El Niño is considered most likely by the peak of the hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while those in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic are slightly cooler than normal, presenting mixed signals for the upcoming season.
The Colorado State University (CSU) team’s initial forecast for 2026 includes 13 named storms, compared to the 1991–2020 average of 14.4. Six of these are predicted to become hurricanes, against an average of 7.2, and two are expected to reach major hurricane strength (Category three+), below the average of 3.2.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report, noted that the 2026 hurricane season is showing characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons. Klotzbach explained the inherent uncertainty in early forecasts, stating, “Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”
The forecast anticipates a moderate to strong El Niño will be most likely by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs from August to October.
The team predicts that 2026 hurricane activity will be about 75% of the average season from 1991–2020. This compares to the 2025 season, which saw approximately 105% of the average activity. Hurricane Melissa was the most significant storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, making landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in Jamaica and causing nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.
Michael Bell, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU, cautioned coastal residents, stating, “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.” This is the 43rd year that CSU has issued an Atlantic forecast, a tradition originated by the late Professor Emeritus Bill Gray in 1984.
The CSU team will issue updates to this forecast on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5, 2026
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