Activity is picking up in the Tropics. “Bonnie” came back to life after almost falling apart completely earlier this week. It is now a depression off the eastern Seaboard. It will continue to move away out to sea and be a worry only for the shipping lanes.

Something to Watch:
Even though there’s nothing in the Gulf right now, NHC thinks that over the next 5 days, there’s a 40% chance that an area of low pressure may develop there.

 

A look at the models:
The latest run from the GFS and Euro models are picking this up and reflecting it in their forecasts . Remember, at this point they are giving us an educated guess. Since nothing has developed yet, there’s no good starting point. No starting point means no ending point and thus no precise area as to where it may end up. But these are two decent models and they are both showing a possible area of low pressure near Central Florida. 

The GFS:
The GFS places the low offshore Tampa by Tuesday. Mostly heavy rain there, some downpours for us. 



The Euro:
Its delaying the arrival of the low, meaning more possible rain for us. Trailing moisture should swing up from the Caribbean and if its correct, it could mean flooding for South Florida.


A recon plane is on stand-by to check out this area of the Gulf on Saturday.


I want to stress that NOTHING has organized yet. This is a great time to make sure you are ready in case Mother Nature throws something our way. I’ll be keeping you updated.

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