Invest 92L is a tad disheveled Monday morning but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still keeping its chances high for development.
Satellite Views
This is a great view of the transition between night and day across the Atlantic Ocean.
Notice the light brown sheen around the spin, that is Saharan Dust, and it is keeping 92L in check for the moment.
92L is roughly 1000 miles East of the Lesser Antilles moving in their direction at 15 – 20 mph.
A close up of the Low shows very little cloud cover in the NE sector with dry skies. This is in part due to the dust sitting to its north.
Most of the associated rainfall is to the west and south of the broad area of circulation.
Hurricane Hunters are on standby for a Tuesday mission. NOAA is tasked for high altitude recon on Wednesday if needed.
Chances for Growth
NHC is keeping the chances at 90% that it could become a depression or a tropical storm over the next 5 days in the red shaded area. They say, that conditions will become more favorable for organization as it moves west. The Lesser Antilles, and especially the Leeward Islands should monitor 92L carefully.
Where is it headed?
Until 92L develops, a more precise forecast will be absent. For the moment, these are all educated guesses.
In the short term, models suggest a steady track to the w/nw possibly moving over the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, SE Cuba, & the SE Bahamas, Turks & Caicos.
Long Term
Some models curve the system over the NW Bahamas and aim it to the U.S. East Coast and a handful bring it closer to Florida.
Actions to Take:
Lesser Antilles: Be alert. Check your plans and supplies. You may have a tropical system near you in a few days. Nothing has developed yet, but it’s best to be prepared.
From Puerto Rico thru the rest of the Caribbean & SE Bahamas: Keep monitoring 92L. Be aware that if it organizes it may be in your vicinity in 3 – 5 days.
NW / Central Bahamas & South Florida: Worst case scenario would put a system here in 7-10 days. Nothing has developed yet and until it does, we won’t know where it will end up. Worry Meter Low.
Check your needs and make sure you are ready to meet any threat during hurricane season.
We’ll keep watching
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