NOAA issued a season update Wednesday morning calling for more named storms and major hurricanes since the may forecast. They are also suggesting this could be the most active season since 2010.
Named Systems: 14-19
Major Hurricanes: 2-5
Seasonal Average is 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Therefore, an above average season is forecast.
The reason for more activity is due to the chances of El Niño forming going down. This means there is less wind shear (a.k.a. harsh winds in the upper levels) present in the Atlantic Basin and weaker trade winds. Also, water temperatures are running 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
South Florida wetter times are ahead. Starting tonight we will have a chance of showers with storms in the forecast for Thursday. The reason for the increase in rain chances is due to weakening high pressure and our winds turning out of the south. This will help draw in tropical moisture from the Bahamas and Caribbean Sea. Therefore, plan on having the umbrellas on hand the rest of the week.
Area of disorganized clouds and rain to the east of the Leeward Islands has a medium chance to form. Conditions are not favorable right now for development, but The National Hurricane Center feels that there is plenty of fuel ahead for it to grow stronger once it moves into the western Atlantic Ocean close to the Bahamas. It is too soon to tell whether it will impact South Florida’s weather or the United States going into early next week. All we can do is watch, wait and see what unfolds going into the weekend.
Franklin is on the verge of becoming the first hurricane of the season. It is expected to cross the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. The main concern with Franklin will be flash flooding and mudslides. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico.
Hurricane conditions likely to reach the coast within the warning area tonight with water levels rising by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Have a wonderful day South Florida and keep it tuned to your Storm Station!
Meteorologist, AMS Certified
WSVN Channel 7