A weak front has pushed through South Florida Saturday morning as dry season begins today, a sign of the changing seasons as we begin to track an increasing number of cold fronts that reach and pass through the area. Unfortunately, this front will not usher in a drop in temperatures nor humidity and it is not a clean sweep, meaning moisture does linger behind it.
That means on Saturday, storms are possible with a 50% chance for rain across the area. The morning will begin with a mix of sun and clouds and an isolated shower. The afternoon will then trend wetter with scattered showers and storms forecast. Some of these storms could cause flooding and produce gusty winds. Before the rain begins, temperatures are forecast to top off into the mid to upper 80s, which is typical for this time of the year.
A lingering shower or storm or two will be possible into tonight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday will be the better half of the weekend. The chance for rain will not be 0, but will be considerably lower than Saturday at a 20% chance. Expect a good deal of sunshine, a beach breeze, a spotty shower and typical high temperatures once again into the mid to upper 80s.
The pattern will then change by the middle of next week as we monitor the next cold front, which should pass through South Florida on Tuesday. This will make for a better chance for showers and storms between Tuesday and Thursday. The model guidance currently is more robust in terms of cooling and drier behind this front, with forecast high temperatures late next week into the low to mid 80s and low temperatures near 70F along with lower humidity. Given it’s still early in the season for fronts to reach South Florida, they do have the tendency to trend weaker.
In the tropics, it’s rather quiet now with Post Tropical Storm Karl near southern Mexico on the Atlantic basin side. This storm will continue to pose the risk for heavy rain and flooding this weekend. There is also a tropical wave well south and west of the Cape Verde Islands with a low, 10% chance of developing.
