Our south Florida weather pattern has been stuck in idle for more than a week. Fortunately, it’s been a rather pleasant pattern. The main weather feature that’s holding is High Pressure north of Florida providing a solid breeze. Winds remain gusty, at times, arriving off the ocean waters. Those winds are also transporting a few rain bands. Since moisture levels are shallow (low), these are simply small short-lived showers that rotate in-and-out very quickly.
There are some minor changes in sight, but they may not be noticeable for a couple more days. As the large and resilient High Pressure area weakens to our north, winds will gradually settle back (after Wednesday). The general air flow off the ocean, however, will still hold. As a result, there won’t be detectable differences in temperatures or humidity levels. By late Thursday and Friday, forecast maps show the approach of a weak fall front. The boundary won’t have much moisture to work off of, so most areas will remain dry. The front is expected to move into south Florida and fall apart quickly (with no cooling to follow). A secondary front is also aiming our way but will probably either stall out to our north or simply fizzle. It’s typical for these October fronts to lack support upon reaching south Florida (or attempting to).
Even as we head closer to Halloween, it’s important to remember that Hurricane Season doesn’t end with October, it lasts through all of November. Currently there are no existing tropical systems, following the demise of recent Oscar. Over the next couple of weeks, it’s most important to look southward for potential development over the still warm waters of the Caribbean. It’s worth noting that a prominent forecast model (GFS, known as the American model) is suggesting development over the next 7 – 10 days over the southern Caribbean. That, of course, doesn’t determine a reliable track. Whatever the case, understand that it’s too early to call off the season.
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