Abundant tropical moisture is set to exit the region as we move into the weekend.
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Drier air will filter in on Thursday as high pressure starts to build in over South Florida. This will bring back the typical summertime pattern of overnight/morning coastal showers with storms, mainly inland, in the afternoon/evening hours through Sunday.
Models suggest another plume of tropical moisture will surge into the area. This will bring better storm chances and rounds of rain by mid-week.
TROPICS
As of Wednesday afternoon, Earl became the 2nd hurricane of this season. Models suggest Earl will make landfall late Wednesday night.
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A Hurricane Warning is in place for Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border and Bay Islands, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for the north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border and north of Puerto Coasta Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.
This system will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from 8″ to 12″ over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula through Thursday night. Up to 16″ is possible over Belize and Mexico.
Storm surge is looking to be 4-6 feet along the coast of Belize and eastern Yucatan peninsula with 2-4 feet along the Bay Islands of Honduras.
Weakening is expected once it interacts with land over the next couple of days. As this system moves over the southern Bay of Campeche by Friday, forecast models suggest it could become a tropical storm over these warm waters. This would be a short window of time before it rains itself out over Eastern Mexico.
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