Hurricane Season is officially at its peak and the Tropics are reflecting just that.

After a short breather from Hurricane Dorian, it seems the Bahamas & the state of Florida is back on a “Tropics Watch” for the upcoming weekend.  A disturbance over the Southeastern Bahamas is slowly becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.  Conditions surrounding the disturbance are becoming more favorable for a TROPICAL DEPRESSION or TROPICAL STORM to form within the next day or so as the system moves towards the NW through the Northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula.

Due to the fact that this disturbance is so close to land…..If this development trend continues, then “Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories” will likely be initiated later today.  Basically this means that since tropical storm conditions will likely be felt within the next 36-48 hours in areas closest to the disturbance, watches/warnings will likely be issued for either the Bahamas or parts of Florida later today.  An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

Regardless of development, impacts for South Florida could already be felt by Friday with increasing rain chances and stronger wind speeds.  The area for potential development remains quite broad and includes much of Florida.  So the track this disturbance decides to take will determine how much this storm will impact South Florida.  Bottom Line: A Southerly track across the FL Straits will likely mean a wetter weekend for South Florida.  A more Northerly or Easterly track could leave South Florida on the drier side this upcoming weekend.  As mentioned before, the Bahamas AND all of Florida will need to monitor the progress of this system in the next 24-36 hours.

Elsewhere in the Tropics…another tropical wave just west of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions are becoming more favorable for development as it quickly moves westward across the Tropical Atlantic.  A tropical depression could form early next week as it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.

Today’s forecast is looking breezy to gusty with quick-moving showers coming through from time to time.  Times of sunshine will even allow temperatures across some spots to reach lower 90s this afternoon.  Breezy to gusty ENE winds will keep several marine advisories in place.  Rip currents will be a big problem up and down the East Coast beaches while a Small Craft Advisory remains in place for Miami-Dade & Broward coastal waters as well as the Florida Keys for seas beyond the reef.

The forecast for Friday & Saturday will be highly dependent on the track of the disturbance but at the very least we can expect breezy to gusty showers through at least Sunday.  Worst case scenario for South Florida includes heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding & stronger winds just to name a few.

Bahamas and South Florida will remain under a “Tropics Watch” through the weekend.  Rain chances gradually go back to normal for the start of next week and then we can focus on the other area in the Tropics currently over the tropical Atlantic waters.

In the meantime, let’s keep a close eye on this disturbance nearby & hope our friends in the Bahamas will not have to deal with another tropical system so shortly after Dorian.

Erika Delgado

Meteorologist

WSVN Channel 7 News

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