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Tropical Depression Nine has intensified into Tropical Storm Ian Friday night over the central Caribbean Sea, with the storm starting to become better organized. In the short term this weekend, parts of the northwestern Caribbean islands will be impacts by Ian, and then looking ahead to next week it will be Florida’s turn to feel the effects of this storm.
This weekend, Ian will track west-northwest and eventually to the northwest over the western Caribbean while strengthening. It will pass to the south of Jamaica tomorrow, then will move near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night, potentially as a hurricane. By Sunday night, it will move over western Cuba, still as a strengthening hurricane.
Plenty of warm and deep water will allow Ian to potentially rapidly strengthen once it moves over the northwestern Caribbean.
By early next week, Ian will likely enter the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to intensify into a Category 3, major hurricane. By this point in time, the exact track and timing remain uncertain, however. The most likely track is for the center of the storm to track near the west coast of Florida Tuesday into Wednesday, but there is still the possibility the center can track as far east as South Florida and as far west as the west-central Gulf of Mexico.
It is too early to know about specific impacts for South Florida given the uncertainty in the track and intensity, but we are beginning to get a better idea of what you can expect. Heavy rain and flooding appears to be the most significant risk at this time with 4-7 inches and isolated higher amounts forecast.
There will also be times of gusty winds, and perhaps sustained, tropical-storm-force. The highest chance for 39+ mph winds will be to our west and at the lower Keys. The chance decreases the farther east toward the Miami-Dade and Broward metropolitan area. The most likely arrival of these potential tropical-storm force winds will be on Tuesday.
With any landfalling tropical system, there will also be the concern for isolated tornadoes. There may also be some storm surge, especially given King Tides happening next week.
Your Storm Station will continue to keep you updated on Tropical Storm Ian.
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