Tropical Depression #11

A New Depression in the Atlantic

It formed Tuesday afternoon and by 11 pm, it was not doing that well. It does not look too impressive on Satellite Imagery, but it still has winds of 35 mph as it travels west possibly reaching the Leeward Islands by the weekend.

It could become tropical storm Josephine Thursday morning. It has a chance to grow a little stronger before starting a weakening trend on Saturday.

Why the weakening?

The European model on Shear, suggests it will run into a wall of wind by the weekend. These strong upper level winds can weaken a storm significantly.

The GFS models presents a weakening trend as well. Notice the closed circle in the center of the storm. As long as it remains intact, the system stays strong.

But by Saturday night, the GFS shows an open circle which represents a loss of strength. This system could just be a tropical wave as it nears Puerto Rico. We certainly hope so.

We’ll be watching