A new tropical cyclone formed in the Atlantic basin on Saturday, known as Tropical Depression Ten, and this system could have some big impacts on parts of Florida by midweek. For us in South Florida, we will feel some impacts from the system but it is currently forecast to be far enough to our west to experience fringe impacts.

Before then, expect a mix of sun and clouds this Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms as a small area of low pressure moves onshore to the east coast. There will be a light breeze at times along with high temperatures into the low to mid 90s.

Beginning Monday, our pattern will become influenced under TD Ten, which will likely be Tropical Storm Idalia by this time period. Winds will shift out of the south and that will do two things: increase moisture levels and temperatures. Winds will maintain this southerly component most of this week, meaning a hot week is ahead for us in South Florida with highs hovering into the mid 90s.

This will also be paired with higher rain chances at a 50-60% chance, but the specific timing of when we’ll see storms Monday through Wednesday remains somewhat unknown given that that depends on the exact track of this tropical system. The current thinking is that South Florida will experience periods of rain bands pivoting through, with the first round of rain expected to move through Monday afternoon.

A widespread 1-2 inches of rain is forecast across South Florida, with some areas receiving more or less than that. Isolated areas of flooding could develop where the heavier rain sets up.

These rounds of showers and storms will remain in the forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday while winds increase. Winds also depend on the exact track but we are becoming more confident that at least it will turn gusty by Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. Sustained winds could exceed 20 mph across parts of South Florida while gusts could reach 25-35 mph.

In terms of the track of Tropical Depression Ten, it is forecast to become a tropical storm later this Sunday or by Monday while meander near the Yucatan Peninsula. It will then start to move in a northerly direction over the Gulf while likely strengthening into a hurricane. Then on Wednesday, it will make landfall somewhere along Florida’s Gulf Coast. The current forecast cone suggests it will most likely make landfall anywhere between the Panama City and Tampa areas.

As we know, impacts occur outside of the cone and that’s why South Florida will see at least some impacts from this system.

It will then pull away to the north and east, affecting the southeastern US late week.

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