This weekend will be a bit tricky to forecast because we will be surrounded by weather features that could bring us pockets of rain.
Lets start with the Wave Watcher
There are a handful of waves making their way west across the Atlantic Basin. There’s also plenty of Saharan dust blowing off the African continent. This is keeping the waves in the middle of the ocean very dry. The two in the Caribbean Sea, are ahead of the main dust plume and thus they have some shower activity. Some of that moisture could slide over us by Sunday.
Saturday Forecast
For the start of the weekend, a disturbance across the Bahamas will move west over the State. Add to that the possibility of some rain spun northward by the western-most wave, and there’s a chance for some showers and even some late day downpours.
Sunday Forecast
By the second half of the weekend, the disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico leaving behind plenty of moisture. By the way, any time a disturbance drifts into the warm waters of the Gulf they are worth watching for possible development. As of this moment the National Hurricane Center is NOT anticipating anything to form over the next 5 days.
To our South, we will have a second wave moving through that can also spin up some rain our way. This unstable atmosphere could cause some rain to form and maybe even a couple of strong storms.
If that wasn’t enough, more tropical moisture to our east could arrive on Monday keeping us with a chance for soggy skies until Tuesday.
7 Day Rain Chances
Typical rain chances for rainy season is between 30-40%. I’ll keep our chances there for the weekend, but don’t be surprised if some heavy rain develops at times due to all the features mentioned above. We’ll keep watching.