The start of the workweek for us here in South Florida hasn’t been all too bad. We noticed a difference in the storm coverage as we headed into Monday afternoon even though we had a southwest wind in place. Some areas of south Florida saw showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon on Monday but it wasn’t as widespread and with the southwest steering flow in place all activity in the afternoon pushed east (mainly across our northern areas of South Florida. Parts of Miami Dade even saw plenty of sunshine during the late afternoon hours.) And with winds still out of the Southwest today it looks like our morning started off about the same as it did yesterday: Quiet and quite beautiful!
So why have we been stuck with the same pattern for the last couple of weeks? Well high-pressure has set itself up over the Gulf of Mexico and with any change in position, wind direction for us here in South Florida is the first to be affected. So as the Gulf of Mexico high drops a little farther south today and tomorrow, that will leave South Florida under the influence of a Southwest wind.
So what exactly does a SW wind mean for our forecast? It will allow for a ‘steamy-then-stormy’ set-up once again today. That usually means it will be mostly dry start to the day with thunderstorms rolling in by the afternoon….because a Southwest wind pushes thunderstorms towards the East Coast. With a warm Southwest wind in place AND keeping mostly dry through the first half of the day, afternoon high temperatures will once again reach into the mid 90s across some spots. Once you factor in the humidity, our heat indices will likely reach the 100s by around lunch time. Storms that do develop across interior sections of South Florida will eventually make their way towards the East Coast metro areas. That means that although we start off our day with plenty of steamy sunshine, by the middle of the afternoon we will see a better chance of a few thunderstorms.
Wednesday will be a transitional day for us as changes slowly make their way back into the forecast. Our wind direction will once again change and an onshore flow (wind out of the East) will set up shop. In addition to a change in the wind pattern, we will be monitoring some tropical moisture inching near us from the Atlantic & the Caribbean. If it holds together, then our rain chances will increase significantly and South Florida could be in store for a few soggy days. With increased cloud cover and higher rain/storm chances, our afternoon temperatures will remain a little closer to average. Again, we will have to monitor this area of moisture and if it does reach us, then South Florida will see a wetter weather pattern by the end of the week and could even linger into the upcoming weekend.