Temperatures are running above average across south Florida, both at night and during the day. This is due to our air flow coming off the still-warm waters. Distant high pressure is directing local winds off the Atlantic. As a stronger breeze develops during the early part of the week, we’ll likely see occasional pockets of rain pushing toward coastal areas. These will tend to move quite quickly in this stronger onshore pattern.
The average high in Miami is around 87-degrees for the middle of October. Instead of the mid 80’s check out these forecasted temperatures over the next several days. Humidity levels will add to the steamy feel, and that’s not going to change until we eventually get a sturdy cold front crossing the region. As it stands now, the upcoming forecast (for all of Florida) involves only a weakening front over the northern half of the state by next weekend.
In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is watching 3 weak tropical waves (none of these is showing potential for development). More importantly, a low pressure area is located over the western Caribbean. It’s only a day or two from reaching land, either the northern coast of Honduras or into Belize. Prior to arriving, the low may be able to strengthen a bit. Development chances are slim as the rainmaker approaches Central America.
Long range weather maps look more interesting, beginning in the late week time frame. As the week winds down, a deepening jet stream will sag toward the Tennessee Valley. In turn, that should push a cold front into Florida, but we don’t yet know how far south it might go. The jet pattern (position of the upper level winds) will determine the extent of any “fall feeling” air. If the front were to reach and cross south Florida, it wouldn’t be until next Monday or Tuesday, October 22-23. It’s overly optimistic to suggest cooling potential at this point, which probably wouldn’t amount to anything other than a minimal drop. Having said that, humidity levels would decrease dramatically should that happen. A batch of drier air would also make for a “small hint of fall”. We’ll be watching.
