Lately our south Florida weather pattern has included “showers on the breeze” arriving from the Atlantic. As we continue into the new week, though, it gets more complicated… and much wetter. Here is the latest image that indicates more moisture is spreading our way. It’s the water vapor map that highlights upper moisture which tracking up from the south.
What’s pushing that moisture northward is the next focus. It’s from a developing tropical system in the northwestern Caribbean.
On Saturday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center designated “Potential Storm Fourteen.” The reasoning? It’s something that’s on the verge of becoming a depression and possible tropical storm. Even though it’s technically not there yet, it provides extra time to warn areas that will be impacted by it.
In this case, the watches and warnings are now posted for Mexico’s Yucatan (the northeastern corridor of it) and the western tip of Cuba. These areas will likely get wind and rain from the system on Sunday while it probably becomes classified as a full fledged tropical system. Where is it heading beyond that?
Here’s the official forecast track over the next 5 days. The soon-to-be storm, to be given the name Michael, will continue lifting north into the Gulf of Mexico. Upper winds from the jet stream (middle of the nation) are steering the feature along, as high pressure over the western Atlantic is keeping it away from south Florida! A faster forward speed is projected from Monday through Tuesday, as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The Florida panhandle region will need to be on alert for the tropical system as it picks up steam early this week. It’s interesting to note that while south and central Florida won’t be in the projected path, we’re due to be on the “wet side” of the storm. More moisture east of the circulation will lead to more rain across our region. Rain and storm chances bump up significantly in the days ahead, as shown, and won’t diminish until we get much deeper into the week.
