All signs point to rain coming, and it could be very heavy when it arrives in south Florida. As we wind-down the week, more numerous showers and thunderstorms will roar into the region as a tropical wave approaches. The disturbance is currently tracking across the southeastern Bahamas and heading to the north and west. The latest forecast calls for the tropical wave to actually “split” with a piece of it crossing the Straits of Florida (on a westerly course) while the other section heads north.
Regardless of how the energy moves, the bigger story is the spread of tropical moisture into the region. The rain bands with thunderstorms will begin working into southeast Florida on Thursday morning. On and off periods of wet weather will take over with plenty of clouds persisting. If you’re thinking of beach plans, for the late week through the upcoming weekend, conditions won’t be too cooperative overall. The unsettled pattern is going to be prolonged due to a spin of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure area (high in the sky) will linger and its counter-clockwise spin will continue to draw up more moisture from the tropics. Here’s a rain forecast that only runs through Friday, showing the potential for a couple of inches of rain. Since the pattern will last an extra 2-3 more days (beyond Friday) parts of south Florida could received up to 5 inches of rain!
Finally, there’s something else to monitor in the distant Atlantic Ocean. For now, it’s a far-away wave in the middle of the ocean.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking it while increasing odds for its development (into early next week). The first land approach would be the Lesser Antilles, so the tropical disturbance could have some island impacts. In the longer range, a westward track will make it necessary for more of the islands to follow the path. It’s too early to know if parts of the U.S. coast will ever have to tangle with it. What we do know is two things: there’s plenty of time to follow the track, and (2) we’re getting into “prime time” of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As August gets underway, realize we’re getting into the part of the season that’s usually the most active.