A front across central Florida is starting to stall, trapping plenty of moisture across the southern half of the state. This will keep rain chances higher than normal through the remainder of the work week at a 50-70% chance.
This Tuesday, winds flip back out of the east but with steering winds more out of the south. This setup will allow for the anytime risk of seeing showers and thunderstorms, especially midday, but that threat for rain will also last into the evening and overnight tonight. With the earlier onset of rain compared to on Monday, that should hold high temperatures closer to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Wednesday is looking fairly similar with the front stalled practically right across the area. With the risk for heavy rain still in place, the threat for flooding will exist in spots. Through Sunday, a widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall is forecast, with isolated higher amounts.
By Thursday, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop along this stalled front just to our east offshore. This will steer winds out of the north with the front still in the area. Rain chances will remain high with afternoon thunderstorms likely. There will even be the risk for strong to severe storms in spots, containing gusty winds and small hail.
It’s not until Friday and especially on Saturday when rain chances could drop, at least a little bit. Some drier air attempts to get funneled in behind this low. We’ll leave in the chance for scattered showers and storms this weekend, especially for our southern areas, with the potential for slightly lower humidity on Saturday. Highs will also be seasonable into the upper 80s to low 90s — perfect timing to welcome the start of the fall season on Saturday.
In the tropics, Hurricane Nigel is forecast to strengthen some more but will not be a threat to land as it tracks north across the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean.
Then there is that low pressure that could develop off the east coast of Florida late-week, bringing rain and gusty winds to areas farther up the east coast regardless of development. This area has a low, 30% chance of becoming a tropical or sub-tropical system.
Lastly, a tropical wave is set to move off from Africa later this week and has a high formation chance. There is plenty of time to watch this potential system as it tracks west across the Atlantic Ocean.
