The “rain train” has left the station and it’s chugging our way. Two separate weather disturbances will be approaching south Florida over the next couple of days. These will likely lead to heavy downpours and the potential for strong thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has all of south Florida under a “marginal risk” for severe storms, on Monday. That means at least isolated instances of severe weather are possible. The greatest threats will be gusty and hazardous winds (from thunderstorms), lightning, and small hail. Of course, if areas of significant rain impact some of the same areas, we could also have to contend with street flooding.

The first disturbance to reach the region (Monday) is a large “upper low”. This is a low pressure area that’s “high in the sky” contributing to a lot of instability. Additionally, the low will lift north and impact much of Florida, by Tuesday. Following the upper low is yet another feature that’s on its heels. It’s the northern tip of a weak tropical wave. Fortunately, it’s not a threat for tropical development as it moves westward by Tuesday. With the wave in our general neighborhood, we’ll likely see an increase in wind speeds along with even more rain coverage. The associated moisture will be arriving directly from the tropics, so it has rich moisture for heavy downpours. Our rain chances remain very high for Tuesday (with the wave nearby) and Wednesday, due to the trailing moist air. Be aware that sudden downpours are a concern, which could limit visibility for driving. If you’re on the road and encounter this issue, it may be a good idea to pull over and let the heaviest rain pass you by. At the very least, slow down on area roadways.

Conditions may start to improve by Wednesday night and Thursday. That’s when a sliver of drier air could arrive, including a brief episode of Saharan Dust (if it holds together on the approach).

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