Forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center predict an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin for 2024. The season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, has an 85% chance of above-normal activity, a 10% chance of near-normal activity, and a 5% chance of below-normal activity.
NOAA expects 17 to 25 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher. 8 to 13 could become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher. Forecasters have a 70 percent confidence in these projections.
The predicted activity is attributed to several factors, including near-record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear, said NOAA. These conditions are favorable for tropical storm formation.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks emphasized the need for preparedness.
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” he said in a press release. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”
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