Michael became a major hurricane recently. The tropical system was gaining momentum in the Gulf of Mexico. By late Tuesday afternoon, Hurricane Michael reached Category 3 strength with more “real estate” to go. It could still feed off the steamy Gulf with access to plenty of tropical moisture. At this point, we don’t know whether Michael has peaked, or not.
The close up forecast cone shows that Michael is expected to maintain similar intensity as it moves across the northeastern Gulf. A Category 3 strike is possibly coming for the Florida panhandle region with landfall expected Wednesday. Along with destructive winds and dangerous storm surge, Hurricane Michael will bring a tremendous amount of rain into the region. Widespread areas of 4 to 8 inches is forecast (with isolated higher amounts) and the flooding threat will continue as the system lifts over the southeastern states.
Once Michael spends some time over land (and loses its energy source, the warm water) the system will rapidly weaken. It will head over Georgia as a tropical storm and eventually get a push forcing it to move faster. The reason? An approaching cold front from the west will “catch up” with the disturbance by Thursday. That cold front will also turn out to be helpful because rain soaked areas will soon get some drying which will follow the front, late week.
Will all this weather activity taking place hundreds of miles from south Florida, what can we look for as the week continues? On Wednesday and Thursday, warm winds will arrive from the south and southwest. There will be plenty of sufficient moisture for scattered downpours and possible storms (but not widespread). The next feature for our focus will be the very same front that will deflect Michael! The boundary will drop into Florida late Thursday and into the start of the weekend. What’s different, however, is the cold front will steadily lose its push and stall over central or south Florida. As long as the front hangs around, local rain chances will remain high. For now, the thinking is that moist and unstable air will stick around through the weekend. On a more positive note, the official end to the south Florida rainy season is just days away! While rain doesn’t end by the clock or calendar, it’s significant in that it’s the time of year that yields fewer episodes of rain. Weather history tells us that heading into the second half of October, and especially beyond that point, drier air often makes a welcome return.