****** JUST IN ****** The National Weather Service of Miami issued their 2016 Summer/Rainy Season Outlook. They are calling for near to slightly above normal rainfall and above average temperatures. However, this forecast will depend on how quickly we transition into a La Niña phase.
Also, NOAA released their 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook at the same time today. They are calling for near normal activity, but it will also depend on La Niña developing. They are going with 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and of those hurricanes 1-4 becoming major hurricanes of Cat 3 or higher. Right now, the models predict for us to transition from El Niño to La Niña by early Fall. During a La Niña phase, the waters in the Pacific Ocean are cooler. This phenomenon helps affect atmospheric currents around the globe making conditions more conducive for tropical activity to form in the Atlantic Basin. There tends to be less wind shear and dry air around. Those elements are key in controlling the development or destruction of tropical systems. ******
Memorial Day Weekend & Tropics
This weekend will mark the unofficial start of Summer and many of you will be enjoying the South Florida sunshine and beautiful beaches… so what can we expect weather wise?
A typical Summer-like pattern is expected. Look for early morning coastal showers (very isolated) and afternoon inland storms moving towards Southwest Florida. Rain chances will be at 30% this holiday weekend with forecast high temperatures near 90 degrees. The main concern will be the risk of rip currents for swimmers through Memorial Day. Keep in mind if you are not an experienced swimmer, it is always best to swim at a guarded beach.
As of 7:45 am, The National Hurricane Center is stating that a spin located between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to show signs of organization with the circulation becoming a little better defined. Conditions remain favorable for a tropical or subtropical system to form later today or Saturday. It is moving West-Northwest and headed toward the Southeast United States coast. Georgia and North Carolina need to monitor it’s progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate it this afternoon.
Just a reminder with all this activity in the tropics, it is always best to have a plan and be prepared. Our hurricane special “Surviving a Storm” is filled with helpful tips on what to do before, during and after a storm and we hope you can join us tonight at 8 pm, right here on 7.
Have a wonderful and safe holiday weekend South Florida!
Meteorologist, AMS Certified
WSVN Channel 7