It appears as of Sunday morning that Matthew has made the turn Northwest.  After spinning in place for almost a full day in the South-Central Caribbean, it started it’s march towards Jamaica and Haiti.

This is a huge system, at times reaching over 400 miles wide. It remains well organized, with good symmetry, excellent feeder banding, and has plenty of warm water and little shear to knock it down.

Everything is in place for Matthew to stay strong as it reaches the Greater Antilles.

Where is it going?
High pressure in the Atlantic has shifted East, and at least in the short term, the cone has also moved east. Jamaica may no longer get a direct hit as Matthew is forecast to move through the Jamaica Channel.

If nothing changes, this means Hispaniola will be on the dirty sector of the system. Outside of the eyewall, this area has the strongest wind, heaviest rain, possible tornadoes, and even 40 inches of rain possible. This will lead to life threatening floods, land and mudslides. If you are reading this from Jamaica, Haiti, or Dominican Republic, PLEASE finish your preps now.



The long term cone shows that the system will impact Eastern Cuba, then moving across the Bahamas, and eventually east of South Florida by week’s end.  Everyone mentioned here should review your hurricane plans and be ready to act. South Florida should continue to monitor the situation. Even if the eye stays to our east, Matthew will be extremely large and powerful and will make its presence felt.

This is what the local weather office is saying:

While there remains a great deal of uncertainty on potential impacts of Hurricane Matthew for South Florida, a hurricane is likely to be in or near the Bahamas by Tuesday, so all interest in South Florida must remain alert. Now is the time to review hurricane preparedness plans and to make sure your hurricane supplies are fully stocked.
Interests in South Florida should continue to remain well informed on the forecast regarding Hurricane Matthew with the latest information from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service Miami.
For more updates and details on the tropics. you can also read my blog at

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