Tropical Storm Lee, the season’s 12th named storm, is on the move having formed over the central Atlantic, Tuesday afternoon. Initial winds are estimated to be 45 mph (with higher gusts). As the storm continues to move west-northwest, it’s likely to get stronger and become a major hurricane by the end of the week!
Lee is far from land and the current forecast has no land areas within the 5-day cone. Having said that, the northern Leeward Islands will need to monitor the track due to the somewhat-close approach. Also, there could be some fringe impacts to the islands by the upcoming weekend. According to the National Hurricane Center, “While it’s too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area (northern Leeward islands) should monitor the progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast”.
The main question we’ve been receiving in the 7 Weather Center? “Does south Florida need to worry about this one?” Lee is simply too far away (2700 miles) to say anything with good certainty. As daily information trickles in, including extra data and models, we’ll have access to more detailed information and better answers. At this point in time, we see long range forecasts that include a substantial dip in the Jet Stream over the eastern United States. That’s good (if that pattern materializes). If steering winds DO happen that way, next week we’ll see Lee turn away from the U.S. and recurve back out to sea. Until that happens, it’s necessary to both watch and wait.
Finally, it’s worth noting that next week is the actual peak of hurricane season. We often see a lot of tropical activity at this point in September. Remember, there’s still plenty of time left this season for potential threats. Water temperatures, meanwhile, remain at record warm levels. That could mean stronger and faster-forming systems than we’ve seen in previous years.
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