Hurricane Erin remains a powerful hurricane north of Puerto Rico. As of late Saturday night, the main change was with the intensity coming down (slightly). Additionally, the track suggested it was starting its likely turn (moving W-NW, instead of the direct westerly route it took to start the weekend).
So far, Hurricane Erin has been as strong as 160 mph, which correlates to a rare Category 5 hurricane. That happened on Saturday as the eye of the storm was compact and intensified over hot water. Looking ahead, a slower forward speed is expected as it moves along the western periphery of High Pressure. That High is weakening and models have latched onto the “outcome” of Erin taking a more northerly turn as early as Monday. The official Forecast Cone has Erin turning east of the Bahamas on Monday. Then, the track even suggests the center may stay west of the island of Bermuda. If that happens, impacts from Erin would be about as minimal as you’d expect from a hurricane of this caliber.
In south Florida we’ll continue to follow the progress of Erin without any reasonable changes in our weather. The center is forecast to remain at least 500 miles east of us, on Tuesday. Then, depending on the eventual track and intensity, Erin may send higher seas and rip currents to select areas up the Eastern Seaboard (of the U.S.) later in the week. It’s forecast to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days but not nearly as strong as when it peaked, Saturday afternoon.
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