Some big changes are on the way the rest of this week and into the weekend across South Florida as a coastal storm forms near Florida along the season’s first fall front, leading to the risk for heavy rain Thursday into Friday followed by a drier weather stretch beginning this weekend.
For our Thursday, rain chances will gradually rise as the day progresses as an area of low pressure lurks near western Cuba while the fall front inches closer from the north. This will help moisture levels rise and therefore enhance the amount of showers and storms we see.
Therefore, expect scattered to numerous storms and downpours at times, especially this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Flooding will be possible in some spots, with a widespread 1-2 inches and isolated 2-5 inches forecast between Thursday and Saturday.
This will especially be concerning during times of high tide given the ongoing King Tides, which would make conditions even worse. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 8PM this evening along the east coast. Beyond then, water levels will continue to ease up now that we’re past the full moon cycle.
On Friday, it will be a rather soggy and stormy day with rounds of rain and storms likely throughout the day, especially midday and in the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy with milder temperatures as a result. As previously mentioned, flooding will remain a concern.
By this weekend, the fall front finally arrives! This will lead to a gradual — not dramatic — change in our weather pattern. Saturday will be more of a transition day with times of sun and clouds and the chance for lingering showers.
It’s not until Sunday when most locations will be dry as lower humidity flows in. That will come with sunshine and near-typical temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. This will remain the case most — if not all — of next week too!
Tropical update
Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for much of the Leeward Islands as Tropical Storm Jerry passes nearby Thursday into Friday with sustained winds near the center of the storm forecast to be up to 65-70 mph.
Thankfully, the worst of this storm is likely to remain offshore but wind and rain impacts are still expected for some of the Caribbean islands.
Beyond then, Jerry will turn to the north and then to the east, remaining away from land.