Unsettled times are ahead this weekend as moisture levels increase due to a stalling front approaching from the west and Potential Storm Nine — an area of low pressure near Cuba as of Friday afternoon that the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on — moving toward the Bahamas. That system is likely to become Tropical Storm Imelda this weekend.
It won’t be a weekend washout but conditions can change quickly where there will be sunshine at times and cloudier skies with passing showers and storms at other moments.
On Saturday, expect the aforementioned conditions but still some dry time. The best chance for rain will be inland and away from the coast. High temperatures will generally reach about 90F.
Then on Sunday, winds will start to increase as Potential Storm Nine/Future-Imelda makes its closest approach to South Florida. While we should still monitor this potential system, the most likely track is for the center to remain offshore but across the Bahamas while traveling in a general northerly direction.
In addition to the winds, downpours and isolated thunderstorms could pivot through the area at times across South Florida but we’ll still see dry time and periods of sunshine. In other words, neither day this weekend will be a washout.
Looking ahead to next week, this future tropical system will very likely be toward our north and east, either over the Southeast US or southwest Atlantic but will still have an influence on our location conditions.
That includes higher seas and a rip current danger starting Sunday and persisting through at least mid next week.
At least on land, we’re likely to enter a drier weather stretch for most of next week — finally! Future Imelda — will help steer in drier air from the north and west, leading to the daily risk for only some isolated showers and storms.
Given the drier conditions and a westerly wind, that means it will turn hotter with highs in the low to mid 90s next week, which could tie or break records at times!
Tropical update
The forecast for Potential Storm Nine still remains quite uncertain. There are three main possible scenarios of how the track evolves: it gets pulled onshore toward the Southeast US coast and makes landfall there early next week, it loops and meanders around near the Carolina coast much of next week or Hurricane Humberto pulls it away from the US.
The model guidance remains in a good deal of disagreement but over the weekend there should be more confidence in the forecast as Potential Storm Nine likely develops into a tropical depression or storm near or over the Bahamas. That’s why there are tropical storm alerts currently in effect there.
Then for the early to middle part of next week, the National Hurricane Center expects this system to be a Category 1 hurricane near the Southeast US coast while making landfall there or lurking near the coast.
Regardless of the exact track, even if the system gets closer to the US, heavy rainfall and flooding will be a concern from parts of the Carolinas through the Mid-Atlantic next week.
There is also Hurricane Humberto as the only active system currently in the Atlantic Ocean. As of Friday afternoon, the system is rapidly intensifying and is now a major hurricane over the southwest Atlantic but it poses no direct risk for the US. It could become a concern to Bermuda next week, however.
