Gradual changes ahead

Summer showers have been at a minimum at this early point of the week.   The drier than usual conditions are partly due to high pressure  building off the southeast coast of the United States.   Also, a batch of drying has come from our easterly air flow.   That’s a bit unusual since moisture often streams off the ocean (especially when we have breezy days, like Monday)!   A change in pattern will likely evolve into the middle of the week.   On Tuesday, winds will settle back and begin to shift more out of the south than the east.   This should allow for a growing surge of tropical moisture to steer into our general area.   We’re also watching a disturbance on the approach from the central Bahamas.   It’s yet another of the series of “upper lows” that we’ve seen commonly this summer season.   What’s different compared to other low pressure systems?  It’s a non-tropical spin that’s high up in the atmosphere.   Often when one of these is over us, the air destabilizes which triggers rain and storms.  That’s the expected set up and now in the forecast as the week continues.  Activity may only be isolated in coverage until building from Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.  That’s when scattered downpours will form especially during the peak heating of the day.   By the way, there will be plenty of heat and humidity while our air flow originates out of the tropics the rest of the week.    The only “wild card” in all of this would involve the chance for some returning Saharan air, or dust, moving in from the Atlantic.   Of course, there’s been plenty of  Saharan type air, arriving in episodes already this summer.   It has expanded off the ocean creating a lot of haze.  It also tends to limit rain production.   Right now, there’s just a minor sliver that could settle in, later this week.   It’s so remote of a chance that we’re downplaying the possibility and expecting wetter days to take over.