Hurricane Michael is making its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The system has been gaining strength, a trend that’s likely to continue since it’s heading over the hot Gulf waters. Here’s a look at Michael on the color enhanced satellite, from late Monday. The view from space confirms that it’s a large tropical system looking more healthy. The center of the hurricane recently passed by the western tip of Cuba and continues lifting north. The latest forecast cone (shown here) is noticeably narrow, which indicates good overall agreement in the track over the next couple of days, especially.
Hurricane Michael is being steered by a dipping jet stream (from the distant north and west) while high pressure is also playing a role from the western Atlantic. By the way, that high is helping prevent Michael from coming to south Florida! What can we expect? The short answer is simply some “side effects.” Michael will remain a couple hundred miles away from south Florida. Offshoot impacts include streaming showers that will likely race in and out. Rain and storms will probably become more numerous across the Florida Keys, though. Warm winds will veer more out of the south into Tuesday. Meanwhile, marine hazards will continue including Small Craft Advisories and dangerous rip currents along the beaches. Finally, all week long we’ll run the risk of coastal flooding near times of the high tide cycle. This is not related to Michael or the tropics but rather because of the annual King Tides. Poor drainage areas near the coast will need to be aware of possible water-covered areas.
As the week continues, Michael will leave the Gulf and reach land over north Florida. Landfall will likely take place during the middle part of the week as the system accelerates northeast. Behind Michael is another weather feature (but not tropical, and coming from the opposite direction). A weakening cold front will sag into the state and continue our chance for rain. For the northern half of the state, the front may bring some drying. South Florida will stay in the soupy air as the front weakens and stalls out, near Lake Okeechobee.