The National Hurricane Center is busy tracking two systems and following another 3. The areas of concern stretch all across the Atlantic Basin from Fiona, to Gaston, and three waves being eyed for development. The closest to the Caribbean has a very high chance for growth.
We will focus on the wave set to move into the Caribbean. It has a very high chance for development.
This wave has a 90% chance it could become a depression or a storm inside the red area over a period of 5 days. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding its future track.
The spaghetti models show a system heading into the middle of the Caribbean Sea thru the weekend, but by the start of next week they fan out. When they do this, it’s because they don’t have a good handle on the wave. That is to be expected since nothing has developed yet. Everyone from the Ycatan Peninsula thru Florida should keep an eye on the wave.
Two Scenarios
Scenario one
If the wave travels on the south side of the proposed development area, it may interact with land and keep the wave from organizing, weak, or delay its organization
Scenario Two
If the wave tracks on the Northern side of the proposed development zone, then it will have plenty of warm water to grow strong and possibly do it faster. We’ll keep you updated