Fall front? On hold

We’re finally at the time of year when “fall fronts” begin arriving in Florida.   As you’d expect it’s progressively more difficult to get fronts southward across our state.   For the second consecutive week, a front has dropped down (into the northern half of the state) only to stop short of reaching south Florida.    On Wednesday, we were on the steamy side of the boundary and far enough away that drier conditions prevailed.   This followed a few morning showers that arrived off the ocean.    Here’s a look at Biscayne Bay in the afternoon as the sun was shining down through little patches of clouds.

Temperatures continue to run above average, especially in the Keys.   In Key West, note that the high reading of the day matched the all time record, set last in 2009.

As we continue through the middle of the week, the only changes for us are minor ones.   There’s still a distant disconnect from the main batch of cooling.   The sharp difference is north of the Tennessee Valley as the jet stream contributes to some of the coolest air of the season, thus far.   As for Florida, we remain underneath a dome of high pressure (in the upper atmosphere).   Even as that high weakens and starts slipping southward, we’ll stay under its grip as the week comes to a close.

Upper winds won’t be able to force a front farther south than Lake Okeechobee in the foreseeable future.   The Friday weather map shows what’s left of the frontal boundary staying intact with just a bit of moisture that could work in along the breeze.   Local winds will continue coming out of the east and southeast.    Rain chances will actually start creeping back up as moisture builds into next week.   Also, a separate cold front could work our way but (again) in weak fashion.    We’ll need to wait for a stronger front to bring our first noticeable cold front with fall temperatures.   Long range models show a more impressive “jet stream dip” toward the very end of October.   We’ll wait patiently.