After days of following a tropical wave over the Atlantic, that Disturbance finally strengthened to a (expected) tropical storm. As of 5 pm on Tuesday, Tropical Storm Ernesto had formed over the central tropical Atlantic. The system is still advancing, to the west and northwest, very fast. That quick forward progress is allowing storm impacts to spread into the Leeward Islands earlier than once thought. Ernesto is the season’s 5th named storm in the Atlantic Hurricane Season, by the way. Also, Ernesto is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to intensify to a Hurricane by early Thursday (once it pulls north and away from Puerto Rico). On the current projected track, Ernesto will either make a landfall along the eastern part of Puerto Rico, or remain just offshore. Either way, there will be impacts of big wind and rain.
Sometimes a “fast” tropical system is a good thing. It’s impacts from the Leeward Islands, to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, then Puerto Rico will be more condensed than with a prolonged and slower event. Still, many spots will receive significant rainfall (including up to 10″ of rain across some of the Caribbean islands).
The future of Ernesto includes a still-swift system that could reach Cat. 2 strength as it turns northward later in the week. At that time, Bermuda will need to follow the track closely and brace for a potentially strong brush with Ernesto. In the long run, the system is probably going to recurve, due to weakening High Pressure in the Atlantic and a Jet Stream that pulls “down and away” from the United States. That would be a welcome relief for the east coast of the U.S. (as well as the Bahamas)! Impacts may be limited to high swells over the distant waters and rip currents. Stay tuned.
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