Today-Afternoon scattered showers and storms
Saturday- Not as wet. Saharan Dust along drier air moves in briefly, but it will make conditions hot.
Sunday- Typical Summer day with afternoon heat and storms.
Monday-Wednesday- Depends on track Elsa takes.
Tracking the Tropics
Elsa strengthened into a hurricane moving close to Barbados Friday morning.
The main story is the long term forecast for South Florida as we focus on Elsa early to middle of next week. Based on the forecast track and latest models, they are in agreement that Elsa will continue to move West-Northwest through the Caribbean Sea this weekend. By Monday, there is a high amount of uncertainty and it is too early to determine what– and if any– impacts Elsa could have on South Florida.
Computer models after 48 hours spread out indicating the uncertainty in the long range forecast.
The European model has high pressure in the middle of the Atlantic moving quickly away allowing Elsa to turn North early. That would imply a weaker system moving through the Bahamas. However, the GFS (global) has a later turn and stronger system moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
NHC track is in the middle and it includes South Florida. Therefore, the main message we want to stress… we need to continue monitoring the latest updates.
There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall and gusty winds for the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week (Monday-Tuesday).
Stay tuned to your Storm Station for the latest!
Vivian Gonzalez
Meteorologist, AMS Certified
WSVN Channel 7