Drier air & Saharan Dust

Local Weather:

We have had a typical Summer weekend with brief coastal showers and isolated inland storms favoring Southwest Florida. The wind has also been elevating the risk of rip currents. By Monday, we will probably see a few more showers on the breeze and then the air drying up significantly. Satellite imagery and water vapor have been picking up a large batch of dry air with Saharan Dust over Eastern Atlantic moving our way. Models suggest that it will arrive midday Monday creating hazy skies. We will have mostly dry conditions with a steamy breeze along the coast. Lower rain chances set to continue into Tuesday and go back up late week.

If the moisture holds with a wave currently in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. Tropical waves can grow just as fast and fall apart. Either way, afternoon storms possible with more moisture in the air. This will be the case through the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Update:

A non-tropical area of low pressure over 1100 miles West-Southwest of the Azores continues to produce limited shower activity. Conditions are only marginally favorable for development over the next few days before it moves North-Northeast through Tuesday. During this time it could acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a low chance to form during the next 5 days.

Lets talk about the Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane season… We have seen a parade of systems developing. Literally lining up one after the other. Thankfully most of them staying over the open waters. However, this time around Hawaii is closely watching major Hurricane Hector. On the forecast track, it is likely to come close to the Big Island of Hawaii between Tuesday and Wednesday. If it manages to move closer, it will bring strong winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, high surf and dangerous rip currents to parts of the islands.

As for hurricane landfalls in Hawaii, they are rare. They have only seen a handful of tropical systems make landfall (Darby & Iselle are notable), but dozens of them have come close to bring impacts to land.

Typically during El Niño years we see more activity in the Central Pacific and there are signs it is already underway. It tends to be wetter for the Southern half of the U.S. and there is less tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin due to the dry air and strong winds around. The National Hurricane Center will be revising their hurricane season outlook this Thursday, August 9 and most likely make an announcement.

Have a great week South Florida and make it a safe one!

Vivian Gonzalez

Meteorologist, AMS Certified

WSVN Channel 7