Florida & the Bahamas remain on watch as Hurricane Dorian inches closer this weekend.

As of Friday 11am, Dorian remains a strong Category 2 Hurricane still moving towards the NW.  A high pressure system to the East and an Upper Level Low Pressure system to its West continue to steer Dorian in that general direction.  The new advisory has slowed Dorian’s forward movement a bit and we will continue to see a slowing trend in the days to come.  As the high pressure system over the Atlantic strengthens, it will help steer or push Dorian on a more Westerly direction.

As it stands, hurricane force winds extend out 25 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.  As Dorian strengthens, it’s size will get larger which means hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds will extend even farther out.

The forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center keeps almost all of Florida in the cone so Central Florida, South Florida & North Florida still have an equal chance of seeing Dorian make landfall.  The problem with Dorian is that once it slows its forward movement, Dorian will be sitting over the warm Atlantic waters, which could help fuel the system into a much larger and more powerful major hurricane.  As Dorian remains stalled out just off the Florida coastline, the state will experience a prolonged duration of rain, wind & dangerous storm surge.

As far as timeline is concerned, the NW Bahamas could begin to experience impacts as early as Saturday evening, which is why a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the NW Bahamas.  The East Coast of Florida could begin to feel tropical storm force winds as early as Sunday and Hurricane force winds as early as Monday.   The exact location still to be determined.  Tropical Storm Watches for Florida could be issued as early as Friday night.  Depending in where Dorian makes landfall, the Florida Keys could begin to feel tropical storm force winds as early as Sunday where fast moving squalls with brief damaging wind gusts possible.

Rainfall amounts will vary across the Northwestern Bahamas & Florida.  Central Bahamas forecast to receive 1-2″ of rain with isolated amounts up to 4-6″.  The Northwestern Bahamas, along with the East of Florida closest to where Dorian makes landfall, can see anywhere from 6-12″ of rain with isolated higher amounts of up to 18″.

Life-threatening storm surge will also raise water levels by as much as 10-15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of what the models are showing, all of Florida remains in the cone.  Now is the time to prepare.  Have a hurricane plan in place & be sure to have all supplies needed in the event your area experiences a direct hit.

Please be safe out there.

Erika Delgado

Meteorologist

WSVN Channel 7 News

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