During the day, on Tuesday, Tropical Storm Dorian crossed into the Caribbean. Overall, we haven’t seen much difference in its wind and rain effects. Impacts will continue to focus around Puerto Rico for the midweek. As for the Bahamas and Florida, we still have plenty of time to monitor the track of the tropical storm. As of Tuesday night, the system is still more than 1300 miles from south Florida.
Dorian is located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. It remains a small system with storm force winds (over 39 mph) extending out 45 miles from the center.
Puerto Rico is under both a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch. Here’s a look at other advisories for the islands.
A Wet Wednesday is ahead for Puerto Rico, and there’s a growing concern for possible flash flooding.
The forecast cone suggests Dorian will likely move over part of Puerto Rico, in the near term. If the track favors the right side of the cone, Dorian will have to deal with terrain that includes some high elevation. That would weaken the system.
However, if the track of Dorian avoids the bulk of land in the path, and heads over the Mona Passage, it could get stronger.
Regardless of a midweek uptick or downward trend in the system, the ongoing worry will be the longer-term track near the Bahamas. Warm water temperatures and lighter wind shear could allow it to strengthen to a hurricane. Here’s the 11 pm forecast cone (big view).
