October has begun just where we left off with showers and thunderstorms remaining in the forecast. The brief, drier stretch of weather early week has come to an end as a front starts to form across central Florida, focusing showers and storm development across much of the Florida Peninsula for the rest of this week.
Along that front will be a mid-level area of low pressure that will lurk over the northwestern Bahamas around the Friday time frame, aiding in those higher rain chances.
So for Thursday afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, moving from north to south. They are most likely to occur during the 2-6pm time frame. Flooding will be a concern.
Then overnight Thursday, there will be the potential for additional thunderstorms flaring up, especially by the coast. It won’t be a widespread rain but if you have any late-night plans, prepare for heavy rainfall in spots.
Heading into Friday, this is likely to be our wettest day of the week given that nearby mid-level low. Winds will also be a bit stronger, with gusts up to 25 mph possible, courtesy of the nearby front.
Along this front, an area of low pressure may even spin up and travel to the northwest. The National Hurricane Center is even watching this area for potential tropical development and given it a 10% formation chance. Regardless of development, impacts won’t change and is not a big concern at all.
That means rounds of rain and storms are likely throughout the day Friday with flooding possible.
As far as rainfall totals are concerns, the highest amounts are expected to occur across our northern areas and farther up the coast with 3-5+ inch totals are forecast.
Those amounts include the weekend time frame given that it will still be unsettled. Over the weekend, the front is forecast to travel farther north and away from South Florida, however. This will result in lighter winds but the moisture will linger.
Therefore, scattered showers and storms are expected throughout the weekend but a washout is not expected at least. Otherwise, there will be more clouds than sunshine with high temperatures that are seasonable into the mid to upper 80s.
Tropical update
The final advisory was issued on Hurricane Imelda at 11AM Thursday as it has since lost its tropical characteristics and is now a remnant area of low pressure.
That leaves us with two areas to watch for potential tropical development, including the aforementioned area near Florida.
The other area is a tropical wave that is set to move off from Africa and also has a low formation chance over the next week.
