For several days, we’ve been watching a tropical wave heading across the Atlantic toward the Bahamas. The wave now has increasing odds for development as we wind down the week. More of the forecast models are coming into agreement that a tropical depression, or weak storm, could form as early as Friday (according to the National Hurricane Center). Here’s the current satellite image as it heads over The Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas.
For now, there’s simply a large area of showers and storms (disorganized) hovering across the island chain of the Bahamas. These may become more concentrated around a center, but it’s too preliminary to know exactly where they might cluster together. The forecast calls for a general spread of gusty showers to impact the region. These may shift into areas of Florida from Thursday through Saturday. Of course, should the wave organize into a stronger system, local impacts would be greater and longer lasting.
The longer range potential for the disturbance involves several potential tracks. Of the “big three” main tropical forecasting models, the GFS tracks the wave across the Straits (moving due west). The Euro cuts it across south Florida moving more northwest into the Gulf. Finally, the UKMET model takes it more northward along the east coast of Florida. Regardless of the outcome, our local impacts will basically be the same: Heavy rain potential with possible flooding, gusty winds, and isolated waterspouts or tornadoes. For boaters, rough seas should be expected. Swimmers will face dangerous rip currents as a hazard so it’s not recommended.
Our unsettled pattern will mean “less hot” temperatures in the days ahead. Also, the stronger breeze will make it feel cooler than recent times. Here’s a look at the increased rain chances as the wave, or tropical disturbance, crosses our general area.
