Back to school

As Miami-Dade students return to school on Monday, there’s a decent chance of seeing a shower or two.   Overall, rain is expected to be “hit or miss” across south Florida with small and patchy batches of rain.   Even though the coverage isn’t likely to be widespread, light wind speeds won’t help the cause.   Instead of being able to push away developing pockets of rain (at least quickly) showers will basically linger awhile.   Since there’s plenty of moisture in the air, there’s also a good chance for heavy downpours, at times.   High pressure is controlling our weather pattern and the high is centered over the distant Atlantic Ocean.   With this onshore flow in place it’s common for these stray showers to come and go.   Additionally, the daytime heat and sea breeze circulations create more instability that leads to daytime thunderstorms.   As the week begins, the majority of these should favor areas well inland (with seasonal chances ranging from 30 – 40%).    By Tuesday night, we may transition to a few more changes.   Winds will veer out of the south as a weak tropical wave crosses Cuba and the northern Caribbean.   Some of the associated moisture is likely to get directed northward, so more numerous showers and storms are in the forecast for Wednesday.   Damp and unsettled conditions could easily continue through the rest of the week since there’s nothing to force out the connection to tropical air.   We should expect daily rounds of rain with a few strong storms during the peak heating of the day.  The good news?  These rains will occasionally cool off the otherwise hot temperatures.