Area to watch

We’re keeping a close and watchful eye on a tropical-type  disturbance that’s east of the Bahamas.   At this point, it’s just a strong wave.  However, it may have a window of opportunity to get more organized (mainly from Tuesday through midweek).    There’s a good chance south Florida will be impacted, at least, by a wave.   That means more soaking, wet weather is probably on the way.    Heavy rounds of rain could begin moving into the region as early as Tuesday, lasting deep into the week.   We’ll pay extra close attention as the system moves over the very warm waters by the northwestern Bahamas.   At that point, “wind shear” (or interference) may start settling back.  It’s at that juncture that  we  COULD  see it attempt to organize into a depression or storm.   The National Hurricane Center has recently raised the chance for formation to a medium percentage, while many uncertainties remain.   Regardless of tropical development, the associated moisture will linger over south Florida for several days.   Later in the week, then, a front is expected to press southward into the state.  That should only aid in more instability.   Rain accumulations may continue ramping up beyond Friday (perhaps well into next weekend).   In areas targeted by the most rain there’s the typical threat of street flooding.   Already, local Water Managers are lowering canals in preparation for a possible big rain event!   Some of our forecast models suggest between 3 and 6 inches of rain, or more, by next weekend.  Stay tuned.