Tropical Storm Elsa is the earliest 5th named storm on record for the Atlantic Basin in the satellite era between 1966-present. Previous record holder was Edouard on July 6, 2020.
Right now, it is moving at a fast pace to the West at 25 mph and forecast to pass through portions of the Windward Islands on Friday and emerge into the Caribbean late Friday. Then, it will move near or South of Hispaniola on Saturday.
The forecast beyond Saturday becomes highly uncertain as computer models are giving different solutions on the outcome. One of the most reliable models is the European and it has Elsa turning northward after interacting with the Dominican Republic and Haiti. While the Global (also reliable) and several other ones take Elsa across Western Cuba and into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.
If the Global model is right, we would see more impacts (rain & gusty winds) across South Florida starting late Monday into Tuesday. For now, Florida should monitor the latest updates, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
The cone will continue to shift and change gradually, so the main message for South Florida is that we need to pay close attention to the latest updates.
Keep it tuned to your Storm Station, 7 News!
Meteorologist, AMS Certified
WSVN Channel 7