As of 7:20 pm Tuesday night, chances for development went up from 60 to 70%. A second recon mission set for Wednesday.
Plenty of heavy rain east of the Lesser Antilles associated with the wave is moving west and aiming for the islands. Even if it doesn’t become a depression or a storm, big downpours with possible flooding can be expected. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin islands are under a flood watch.
Where it finally forms will dictate where it ends up and how strong it may be. A southerly track will dump rain over the islands and keep it a weaker system. A northerly track keeps it over warmer waters with a chance for further growth.