Slightly ahead of schedule, the tropical season may be getting a quick start. We’re watching a disturbance that’s northeast of the Bahamas and over the Atlantic Ocean. A small upper spin is being detected but it’s going to take some time to possibly develop. Low pressure has formed and may begin acquiring tropical characteristics as it meanders over the warm waters. The disturbance is moving slowly so there’s plenty of time to watch its progress (with the general motion west-northwest). If it’s ever going to “get its act together” the most likely time would come after Friday (and maybe Saturday) as the wind shear relaxes in the path ahead. Forecast models continue to suggest a track either toward north Florida (or Georgia) or more of a turn toward South and North Carolina. Since nothing has formed, model runs may deviate during the late week. As for the upcoming holiday weekend, many places along the southeast coast of the United States will likely experience rain and possibly stronger winds. Of course, if there’s deeper development, worse conditions could arise. Regardless for Florida, extra moisture could fuel the return of weekend showers and storms, but we typically expect “scattered showers” this time of year anyway. The biggest concern may be dangerous rip currents. If you have beach plans this weekend or on Memorial Day, you’ll need to be aware of that growing threat.
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