(WSVN) - As Saturday’s first light shone over powerful Erin, a clear and compact eye was discernible. This feature is the lowest point of pressure in the hurricane and where NHC tracks the storm. As of the 11 am advisory, the diameter of the eye is roughly 7 miles wide.
Inside the eye, all is calm, opposite of the wild weather outside of it. The eyewall, or the immediate ring of destruction surrounding the eye, is the most dangerous, powerful, and most lethal part of the system. It should remain away from land areas but Bermuda, should be prepping for this hurricane to be near them next week.
The hurricane grew in strength quickly overnight reaching category 4 winds of 145 mph by 5 am, as of 11 am they reached 155 mph, and now 160. It wasn’t forecast to achieve this until Monday. The most recent Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin was Hurricane Milton, in October 2024.
LARGER?
Erin is forecast to grow in area as well.
Per NHC:
In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.
Recon missions will continue to monitor it. There is plenty of hot water in its path and that will provide the fuel needed to reach such intensity.
IMPACTS
Fortunately as big and as dangerous as the system is forecast to get, the worst of it should remain over open waters in the short term.
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico:
The heaviest of Erin’s rain is concentrated mostly on the southern side of the system, impacting the Northernmost Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Early Saturday morning, the outer rain bands of the system were making their way through some of the islands. While some gusty winds may be felt from time to time, it is the rain that may cause the biggest problems.
Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to flooding, locally considerable flash flooding, along with landslides.
Puerto Rico is under a Flood Watch.
WIND FORECAST
Erin’s wind field is as follows:
- Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center.
- Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles mainly to the north of the center.
This is welcomed news as the worst should stay over water.
Wind envelope will get larger, but still only a worry for Mariners. Can’t rule out some gusts here are there.
Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin’s outer rain bands are possible in portions of the the northern Leeward Islands today and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday.
Some high waves and rough surf will impact Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands, but by Monday, the higher seas will approach the Turks & Caicos, SE & Central Bahamas.
The seas spread out even more by August 19th, now appearing by the NW Bahamas. They will in turn offer a buffer zone for South Florida, acting as a breakwater keeping the rough seas away. A moderate risk of Rip Currents is forecast by then.
Erin is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.
Confidence continues to increase that the core of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas and the United States.
Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf by the middle part of next week.
We’ll be watching.
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