(WSVN) - An exclusive 7News/Emerson College poll shows 51% of Floridians are backing Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, giving the former vice president a 6-point lead over President Donald Trump.
Spencer Kimball, the director of Emerson College Polling, discussed the results of the poll on Sunday, two days before Election Day. He indicated that, as a battleground state in Tuesday’s election, it could play a crucial role in the outcome.
“Florida is a key state for either candidate,” he said.
Kimball said Biden has been able to maintain a lead over the incumbent, who garnered 45% percent of support from Florida voters in the poll.
“We started seeing Biden pick up his lead in March, in June, and been able to hold it,” he said, “and then this last week it looks like he’s been able to catch maybe a little momentum down in Florida.”
The poll shows the president does not have approval from a majority of voters in the Sunshine State. Forty-five percent approve of his job as commander in chief, whereas 51% disapprove.
While that figure may appear to be in Biden’s favor, Kimball said, South Florida presents a problem for the Democrat.
“The area that I think is most concerning for Biden would be down in South Florida — Miami Dade, Broward, Palm Beach counties — because the vote there is a little bit lighter in the early vote, and those are going be an area where Biden needs to win by literally hundreds of thousands of votes.”
When it comes to likely voters, 52% of men said they will vote for Trump, while only 40% of women will cast a vote for the Republican.
By contrast, 41% of men and 59% of women in the poll said they are voting for Biden.
Younger voters all tend to trend toward Biden. Those between the ages of 45 and 64 favor Trump, while those older than 65 are voting for his Democratic rival.
One issue dragging down the president’s numbers is the pandemic.
Trump has said COVID-19 should not dominate people’s lives.
“We’re rounding the turn. They hate when I say it,” he said during a speech as he pointed to the cameras.
But right now, 53% of Floridians view COVID-19 as a major threat, another 26% called it a moderate threat, 14% called it minor, and 7% said it’s not a threat at all.
Kimball called the pandemic a game changer in this race.
“We saw President Trump holding pretty steady in Florida with his numbers from 2016, but as this pandemic has increased, particularly over June and July, we started to watch those numbers drop,” he said.
Participants in the poll picked the economy as issue number one. Thirty-six percent said the economy is the most important issue when deciding which candidate they’ll support.
Twenty-four percent said the most important issue is the pandemic, and 11% selected social justice, followed closely by health care, and finally, climate change and the U.S. Supreme Court.
This election is a report card on Trump. It will either be a mandate to serve four more years or a shift to what Biden is offering.
“Look, folks, everybody knows who Donald Trump is. Let’s show him who we are,” said Biden during a recent drive-in rally.
In Florida, at least, it appears the former vice president’s message is resonating more.
However, Kimball stressed, politics are known to surprise.
“Nothing is sure in politics, and even in our poll results, there’s still room within the margin of error to see a Trump 1, maybe a 1-and-a-half-point victory in Florida,” he said.
Kimball said the biggest unknown that could affect the results is voter turnout on Tuesday. Voters hitting the polls in person on Election Day could change the playing field and yield some surprising results.
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