Tropical Storm “Colin” by this weekend?

There is a good possibility we may have a tropical storm by the name of “Colin” in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. If long range models are correct, the system could be near Tampa by the start of next week.

Lets catch up with the latest:
There is an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea that doesn’t look like much right now, but models are being consistent that it will move into the Gulf by the weekend and organize.

The National Hurricane Center says there’s a 70% chance that a depression or a storm could form in the area highlighted in red over the next 5 days.

The concern is, tropical systems need at least 80° of water temperature to grow and there’s plenty of that in the Gulf.  Temps here are in the low to mid 80s. So there is enough fuel present to feed whatever develops.

If anything does develop it could track over the “Loop Current” which is one of the warmest spots in the Gulf and its also the birthplace of the Gulf Stream Current.

Models:
This area of concern has already been deemed Invest 93L (An area NHC would like to investigate further, the 3rd of the season in the Atlantic Basin) and very early computer model runs have been issued.  Take these with a grain of salt right now. Nothing has developed yet, and since there’s no starting point, hence the ending points can be iffy.

Lets take a look at the European Model:
This one keeps whatever develops in the middle of the Gulf by Sunday with plenty of rain to the East that should start moving in here by Monday.

The GFS model:
Basically has the same set up with a little slower development. In this case the rain may move here later on Monday or Tuesday.

Hurricane Hunters:
A recon plane is on stand by for Saturday afternoon to investigate the area. This way the folks at NHC will get the crucial data they need to determine the possible development and track of this would be system.

The bottom line:
Regardless of formation, most models drag in a lot of moisture across South Florida by the start of next week. We could be dealing with heavy downpours, windy conditions, and even the possibility of isolated tornadoes.

This is the time to get prepared as hurricane season lasts through November and we’ve already seen plenty of activity in the Tropics.

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